IvyArcIvyArc
9

Start Me Up

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 2 · OR 83

Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has stepped forward following a gelding operation, the second leg of a Chester double coming in June. Solid efforts in defeat next 2 starts and wasted no time leaving behind a lesser effort when second of 12 at the same track (7f, soft) last month. In the mix back sprinting.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Meydan 02/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 1262/01C5C0 @ Meydan 13/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 6f Gd 1234 @ Southwell 26/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 77 · 6f16y Std 132 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 77 par26/034OR 775 @ Chester 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 75 · 6f17y Sft 135 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 75 par3 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 80 · 7f1y Goo 125 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 80 par27/063OR 804 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 84 · 7f127y Goo 132 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 84 par2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 84 · 7f GF 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 84 par1/082OR 842 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 19th of 19 · OR 84 · 7f192y GS 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 83 · 7f1y Goo 134 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 83 par11/094OR 83projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester42nd3rd−1
2026-08-21York219th18th+1
2026-08-01Goodwood26th5th+1
2026-07-11Chester44th5th−1
2026-06-27Chester31st1st0
2026-06-12Chester51st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0112/061/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength99%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/01/202610th25/10%31%+0.31
13/02/20267th7/282%54%-0.28
26/03/20265th85/4089%33%-0.55
12/06/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
27/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
11/07/20264th5/287%63%-0.24
01/08/20266th14/126%58%+0.32
21/08/202619th25/10%0%0.00
11/09/20262nd10/147%91%+0.44