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5

Veblen Good

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 10 · OR 85

Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful on return/stable debut over C&D in April and finished in the frame 4 times since over the summer. He's gone off the boil of late however, testing conditions possibly a factor in Silver Cup at Ayr most recently. Handicapper gives him a chance, but draw could've been kinder.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 87 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 87 par29/044OR 872 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 90 · 7f3y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 89 · 6f Goo 141 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 89 par1/073OR 893 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 89 · 6f GF 140 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 21 · OR 89 · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 89 par25/072OR 893 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 89 · 6f Goo 140 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Thirsk 28/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 89 · 6f Gd 139 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 89 par28/083OR 893 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 87 · 7f Goo 135 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 19th of 23 · OR 89 · 6f Hvy 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 89 par19/092OR 89projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr219th18th+1
2026-09-04Ascot37th7th0
2026-08-28Thirsk314th14th0
2026-08-16Pontefract34th4th0
2026-07-25York24th3rd+1
2026-07-20Ayr33rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0420/0728/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 11-13 · tight 83/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -10.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
05/06/202613th22/10%20%+0.20
01/07/20263rd14/126%78%+0.51
20/07/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07
25/07/20264th18/15%85%+0.80
16/08/20264th5/287%63%-0.24
28/08/202614th9/276%24%-0.53
04/09/20267th10/147%14%-0.33
19/09/202619th28/10%18%+0.18