7
Alpha Capture
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 3 · OR 82
Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Pontefract | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Chester | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-9 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 58% | +0.16 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 24/07/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 47% | -0.35 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 89% | -0.03 |
| 06/09/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 24/09/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.19 |