4
Artagnan
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 11 · OR 85
Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Redcar | 4 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ascot | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Southwell | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2024 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 29/08/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 62% | -0.02 |
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 18/5 | 81% | 100% | +0.19 |
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 81% | +0.15 |
| 25/05/2026 | 11th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |