8
Bell Shot
7yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 8 · OR 82
Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Pontefract | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 4 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Pontefract | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newmarket | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Beverley | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 06/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 30% | -0.31 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 12/08/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/09/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |