Brighton Boy
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 7 · OR 81
Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 7.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 2 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 90% | +0.48 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 72% | +0.30 |
| 27/06/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 15/08/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 18/09/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 39% | +0.39 |