Cape Ashizuri
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 9 · OR 90
Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
73%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 2 | 19th | 18th | +1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pontefract | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Doncaster | 1 | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-07-06 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/11/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 93% | -0.02 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 19th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |