10
Kosometsuke
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 5 · OR 81
Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Musselburgh | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thirsk | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Kempton | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 28/08/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 58% | -0.27 |
| 17/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 08/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 21/05/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 05/09/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |