6
Novello Lad
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 2 · OR 84
Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Doncaster | 3 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Thirsk | 3 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 2 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 76/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength3%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 06/10/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 01/07/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |
| 25/07/2026 | 17th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/08/2026 | 17th | 33/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 13/09/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |