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5

Sergeant Wilko

5yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 4 · OR 85

Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Forward-going type who nearly snapped a long losing run with a borderline useful effort on first crack over 7f at Thirsk in May. No easy task when bidding to make all in better company at Newcastle next time and chance he just needed it at Haydock a month ago. Better expected here back in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 26/07/2025 · Pos 17th of 19 · OR 94 · 6f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/07/2025 · OR 94 par26/072OR 942 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 92 · 6f GS 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 92 par2 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 19th of 25 · OR 92 · 6f Sft 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 92 par20/092OR 922 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 89 · 6f Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Lingfield 27/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 88 · 6f1y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 88 par27/022OR 883 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 87 · 6f1y Std 132 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 85 par16/053OR 852 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 87 · 7f14y Sta 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 86 · 6f212y Sft 136 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 86 par5/093OR 86projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock39th9th0
2026-06-27Newcastle28th7th+1
2026-05-16Thirsk32nd2nd0
2026-03-27Newcastle38th8th0
2026-02-27Lingfield26th5th+1
2026-01-16Newcastle24th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0716/0116/055/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength10%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/202517th25/10%11%+0.11
06/09/20256th10/147%72%+0.25
20/09/202519th18/15%25%+0.20
16/01/20264th16/116%77%+0.61
27/02/20266th15/261%17%-0.44
27/03/20268th7/163%46%-0.17
16/05/20262nd14/126%91%+0.65
27/06/20268th12/137%46%+0.09
05/09/20269th16/116%20%+0.04