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3

Stormy Impact

4yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 6 · OR 87

Pontefract · Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner of the 3YO Dash at Epsom in 2025 and made a winning all-weather debut the following month. Pitched into an easier race from her reduced mark and found only one too good at Hamilton (5f) 2 weeks ago. Back over 6f and she can be a big factor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 95 · 5f110y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 95 par19/091OR 952 @ Pontefract 20/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 94 · 6f Sft 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 94 par2 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 22 · OR 95 · 6f2y Hvy 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 95 par8/112OR 952 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 21 · OR 94 · 5f Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 92 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 92 par6/062OR 923 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 92 · 6f17y Goo 139 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 92 par3 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 20 · OR 91 · 6f Goo 134 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 91 par28/073OR 912 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 16th of 21 · OR 89 · 5f89y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Hamilton 21/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 86 · 5f7y Sft 133 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 86 par21/093OR 86projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Hamilton32nd2nd0
2026-08-19York216th15th+1
2026-07-28Goodwood315th15th0
2026-06-27Chester35th5th0
2026-06-06Epsom Downs24th3rd+1
2026-05-14York216th15th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0914/0528/0721/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength91%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20258th15/261%36%-0.24
20/10/20252nd5/174%86%+0.12
08/11/20256th33/10%76%+0.76
14/05/202616th40/10%25%+0.25
06/06/20264th17/255%84%+0.29
27/06/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
28/07/202615th12/137%26%-0.11
19/08/202616th22/10%25%+0.25
21/09/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02