Amidst The Chaos
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 13 · OR 73
Pontefract · Good Biscuit - Ponte Premiership Champion Handicap · 1m 6y
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
80%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 4 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 4 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Redcar | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 08/08/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.08 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 11/09/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 19% | -0.29 |