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8

Arkenstaar

6yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 1 · OR 69

Pontefract · Good Biscuit - Ponte Premiership Champion Handicap · 1m 6y

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thrived last autumn when a 3-time 1m winner (including this race). Ran well when third at Hamilton on return in May but below par all 3 starts since, most recently when tailed off at Ayr (1m, heavy) 6 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Hamilton 03/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 60 · 1m68y Goo 138 · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 60 par3/096OR 605 @ Hamilton 21/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 62 · 1m1f35y Sft 132 · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 62 par5 @ Hamilton 29/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 64 · 1m68y Sft 133 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 64 par29/095OR 645 @ Pontefract 06/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 65 · 1m6y Sft 135 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 65 par5 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 68 · 1m53y Goo 135 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 68 par14/105OR 685 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 72 · 1m68y Gd 133 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 72 · 1m6y Goo 132 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 72 par22/055OR 725 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 71 · 7f173y Goo 136 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Ayr 29/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 69 · 1m Hvy 136 · below its mark29/09/2026 · OR 69 par29/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-29Ayr58th8th0
2026-09-09Carlisle56th6th0
2026-05-22Pontefract510th10th0
2026-05-03Hamilton53rd3rd0
2025-10-14Leicester54th4th0
2025-10-06Pontefract51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/096/1022/0529/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 10-14 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20251st85/4089%100%+0.11
21/09/20252nd6/168%83%+0.15
29/09/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
06/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
14/10/20254th11/142%57%+0.15
03/05/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
22/05/202610th18/581%0%-0.81
09/09/20266th33/10%38%+0.38
29/09/20268th40/10%0%0.00