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14

Captain Corelli

9yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 52

Pontefract · Good Biscuit - Ponte Premiership Champion Handicap · 1m 6y

#14

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful on 4 of his 5 starts on turf during 2024 but failed to find the same form last year and it has been a similar tale following another breathing operation this campaign.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.2 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 23/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 68 · 1m6y Goo 134 · below its mark23/05/2025 · OR 68 par23/055OR 685 @ Beverley 24/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 68 · 7f96y GF 135 · beat its mark24/06/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Haydock 18/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 66 · 7f212y Goo 138 · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 66 par18/075OR 664 @ Pontefract 06/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 64 · 1m6y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2025 · OR 64 par5 @ Beverley 24/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m100y Goo 132 · below its mark24/08/2025 · OR 63 par24/085OR 635 @ Redcar 16/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 62 · 7f219y Goo 133 · below its mark16/09/2025 · OR 62 par6 @ Southwell 20/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 60 · 1m13y Std 135 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 60 par20/116OR 606 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR 58 · 7f219y Goo 134 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Leicester 21/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 55 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 55 par21/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 14th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Leicester69th10th−1
2026-09-09Redcar613th14th−1
2025-11-20Southwell612th13th−1
2025-09-16Redcar511th11th0
2025-08-24Beverley59th9th0
2025-08-06Pontefract45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/056/0820/1121/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 5-14 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength22%

Delivery trend +6.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20256th11/271%17%-0.54
24/06/20259th22/10%27%+0.27
18/07/20256th7/163%38%-0.26
06/08/20255th11/142%33%-0.09
24/08/20259th11/271%0%-0.71
16/09/202511th17/255%0%-0.55
20/11/202512th33/10%8%+0.08
09/09/202613th50/10%33%+0.33
21/09/20269th22/10%38%+0.38