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11

Garden Oasis

11yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 10 · OR 66

Pontefract · Good Biscuit - Ponte Premiership Champion Handicap · 1m 6y

#9

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who has produced several placed efforts this campaign but had little chance of lasting out over 1¼m having faced competition for the lead at Nottingham 4 days ago. Drops back in trip and merits respect with a visor on for the first time in a couple of years.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m1f170y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 75 par28/053OR 755 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 74 · 1m Goo 140 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m6y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 73 par29/064OR 734 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 72 · 1m Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 72 · 1m6y Goo 132 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 72 par5/085OR 724 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 71 · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 70 · 1m Sft 140 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 70 par1/095OR 704 @ Pontefract 17/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 68 · 1m6y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Nottingham 01/10/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 66 · 1m2f50y Goo 136 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 66 par1/105OR 66projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01Nottingham511th11th0
2026-09-17Pontefract45th4th+1
2026-09-01Ripon57th7th0
2026-08-15Ripon43rd2nd+1
2026-08-05Pontefract53rd3rd0
2026-07-18Ripon42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0518/071/091/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 3-14 · tight 42/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength34%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20268th16/116%22%+0.06
15/06/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
29/06/20264th9/276%50%-0.26
18/07/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
05/08/20263rd11/1094%60%-0.34
15/08/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
01/09/20267th9/276%50%-0.26
17/09/20265th22/10%56%+0.56
01/10/202611th13/266%23%-0.43