IvyArcIvyArc
4

Mwafaq

4yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 12 · OR 72

Pontefract · Good Biscuit - Ponte Premiership Champion Handicap · 1m 6y

#7

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded win number 5 at Doncaster in July and went close to completing a second hat-trick when touched off at Hamilton next time. Remained in form when seventh of 9 at Newcastle (1¼m) last month, not seeing his race out having failed to settle. Return to 1m a plus, stall 12 not so much.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 20/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 56 · 7f36y Std 126 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 56 par20/106OR 566 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Southwell 23/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 62 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 62 par23/046OR 626 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 62 · 1m GF 137 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 64 · 1m68y Goo 141 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 64 par10/066OR 645 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 7f213y GF 132 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 71 · 1m68y Gd 138 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 71 par1/085OR 714 @ Lingfield 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m2f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m2f42y Std 133 · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 73 par3/095OR 73projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Newcastle57th7th0
2026-08-22Lingfield45th4th+1
2026-08-01Hamilton52nd2nd0
2026-07-03Doncaster51st1st0
2026-06-10Hamilton61st2nd−1
2026-05-20Ayr62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1020/051/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 5-14 · tight 54/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -6.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
10/04/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
23/04/20265th11/486%50%-0.36
20/05/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
10/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
03/07/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
01/08/20262nd5/287%89%+0.02
22/08/20265th7/163%50%-0.13
03/09/20267th10/382%25%-0.57