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5

Swift Salian

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 5 · OR 72

Pontefract · Good Biscuit - Ponte Premiership Champion Handicap · 1m 6y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up on his first 3 runs at 1m this season but proving inconsistent of late, fifth of 8 at Ayr (1m, heavy) 6 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Beverley 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 1m100y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 74 par30/084OR 744 @ Pontefract 18/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m6y GS 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 74 · 1m6y GS 134 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 74 par7/045OR 744 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 76 · 1m2y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 77 · 1m75y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 77 par11/064OR 773 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 77 · 1m1f35y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 76 · 7f75y Sft 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 76 par29/084OR 765 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 74 · 7f173y Goo 139 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Ayr 29/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 72 · 1m Hvy 139 · beat its mark29/09/2026 · OR 72 par29/095OR 72projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-29Ayr55th5th0
2026-09-09Carlisle54th4th0
2026-08-29Beverley48th7th+1
2026-08-11Hamilton313th11th+2
2026-06-11Nottingham42nd1st+1
2026-04-26Musselburgh42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0826/0429/0829/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 5-14 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength38%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/08/20252nd8/158%83%+0.25
18/09/20254th13/266%63%-0.03
07/04/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
26/04/20262nd15/261%92%+0.31
11/06/20262nd11/142%88%+0.45
11/08/202613th50/10%0%0.00
29/08/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
09/09/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
29/09/20265th20/10%43%+0.43