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Free World

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · Draw 4 · OR 66

Pontefract · Always Trying Racing Syndicate Handicap · 2m 2f 2y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well backed dropped even further in grade when making all at Catterick (2m) in August. Not in quite the same form when fourth at Newmarket next time but had soft ground as a possible excuse when well beaten at Chester 24 days ago. Type to bounce back with a tongue strap now added.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Meydan 08/11/2024 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 7f Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS8/11C5C5 @ Meydan 13/12/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Meydan 10/01/2025 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 1m4f Gd 11710/01C?4 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 17 · OR 70 · 1m3f188y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Sandown 13/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m6f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 67 par13/064OR 676 @ Nottingham 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 63 · 1m6f Goo 133 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Catterick 04/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 60 · 1m7f189y Goo 135 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 60 par4/086OR 605 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 60 · 2m GF 130 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 68 · 1m7f196y Goo 141 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 68 par11/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester58th8th0
2026-08-14Newmarket54th4th0
2026-08-04Catterick61st2nd−1
2026-07-04Nottingham64th5th−1
2026-06-13Sandown49th8th+1
2026-05-13York416th15th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1113/054/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength29%

Delivery trend -12.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/11/20249th28/10%43%+0.43
13/12/20244th50/10%67%+0.67
10/01/20259th50/10%43%+0.43
13/05/202616th20/10%6%+0.06
13/06/20269th50/10%0%0.00
04/07/20264th13/266%40%-0.26
04/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
14/08/20264th13/891%40%-0.51
11/09/20268th15/261%36%-0.24