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3

Noble Grace

5yo Mare · 9-9 · Draw 6 · OR 59

Pontefract · Always Trying Racing Syndicate Handicap · 2m 2f 2y

#3

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Ffos Las over 1½m in July and, though only seventh of 12 in a handicap at Bath tackling 1¾m 22 days ago, she actually shaped as if needing even more of a stamina test and now goes beyond 2m for the first time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength85%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 14/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m4f88y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS14/1244 @ Warwick 31/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 2m5f5y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Exeter 07/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 86 · 2m5f137y Goo 158 · below its mark07/04/2026 · OR 86 par7/045OR 863 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m4f51y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f219y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS27/0533 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m1f201y Gd 141 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Ffos Las 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 59 · 1m3f209y Goo 134 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 59 par28/076OR 596 @ Ffos Las 12/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 60 · 1m3f209y Gd 140 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 60 par2 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 60 · 1m6f GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 60 par13/092OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath27th3rd+3
2026-08-12Ffos Las63rd4th−1
2026-07-28Ffos Las61st2nd−1
2026-06-14Salisbury34th2nd+2
2026-05-27Kempton37th5th+2
2026-04-27Wolverhampton34th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1227/0428/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 83/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/12/20256th22/10%29%+0.29
31/12/20256th50/10%55%+0.55
07/04/20269th18/15%33%+0.28
27/04/20264th50/10%57%+0.57
27/05/20267th66/10%33%+0.33
14/06/20264th100/10%40%+0.40
28/07/20261st40/10%100%+1.00
12/08/20263rd11/271%60%-0.11
13/09/20267th16/116%45%+0.30