2
Pfingstberg
6yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 5 · OR 61
Pontefract · Always Trying Racing Syndicate Handicap · 2m 2f 2y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-10-03 | Chelmsford City | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-08-15 | Beverley | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2024-08-01 | Nottingham | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-07-23 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-06-27 | Newmarket | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2024 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 23/05/2024 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 08/06/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/06/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 23/07/2024 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 01/08/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 15/08/2024 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 03/10/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |