2
Beerwah
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 5 · OR 64
Pontefract · Constant Security Services Handicap · 5f 3y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Bath | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Nottingham | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hamilton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 64/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 22% | +0.17 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |