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Dragon Spin

3yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 12 · OR 65

Pontefract · Constant Security Services Handicap · 5f 3y

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A dual 5f handicap winner at Nottingham and Thirsk this summer. Posted one of her better efforts having eased back down in grade when third of 5 at Redcar (5f) on latest outing in September and she now finds herself operating from last winning mark. Draw could have been kinder, however.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 29/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 5f8y Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 62 par29/105OR 625 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 61 · 5f10y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Nottingham 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 60 · 5f8y Goo 130 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 60 par9/056OR 605 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 66 · 5f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 65 par16/065OR 654 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 69 · 5f3y GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 69 · 5f89y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 69 par24/074OR 694 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 68 · 5f15y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 66 par15/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Redcar53rd2nd+1
2026-08-22Chester45th3rd+2
2026-07-24York411th9th+2
2026-07-03Doncaster44th2nd+2
2026-06-16Thirsk51st0th+1
2026-06-05Thirsk56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/105/0624/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 14-14 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/10/20252nd12/137%88%+0.51
05/04/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
09/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
05/06/20266th11/271%50%-0.21
16/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
03/07/20264th9/153%57%+0.05
24/07/202611th14/126%9%-0.17
22/08/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
15/09/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36