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7

Invincible Crown

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 14 · OR 61

Pontefract · Constant Security Services Handicap · 5f 3y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hold-up performer who exploited a career-low mark at Newcastle (5f) 2 starts back and followed up despite being made to work harder under a 5-lb penalty over same C&D 10 days ago. Likelihood of a strong pace bodes well in his bid to complete a quick-fire hat-trick.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 56 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 56 par16/066OR 566 @ Nottingham 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 56 · 5f8y Goo 134 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 56 · 5f1y Gd 138 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 56 par30/066OR 566 @ Catterick 15/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f GF 137 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Nottingham 03/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 59 · 5f8y Goo 134 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 59 par3/086OR 595 @ Catterick 17/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 58 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 56 · 4f215y Std 131 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 56 par3/096OR 566 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 54 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 54 · 5f Std 140 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 54 par25/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Newcastle61st1st0
2026-09-19Newcastle61st1st0
2026-09-03Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-08-17Catterick511th10th+1
2026-08-03Nottingham64th4th0
2026-07-15Catterick64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0615/073/0925/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 24/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/06/20264th18/15%67%+0.61
25/06/20262nd5/287%75%-0.12
30/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
15/07/20264th18/15%63%+0.57
03/08/20264th9/488%25%-0.63
17/08/202611th22/10%0%0.00
03/09/20263rd7/282%60%-0.22
19/09/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
25/09/20261st4/596%100%+0.04