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3

Jojo Rabbit

8yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 1 · OR 60

Pontefract · Constant Security Services Handicap · 5f 3y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

88%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform
4lbs

Commentary

C&D winner who almost landed a gamble here on his penultimate start and made no mistake when bolting up at Catterick 5 days ago, making all and having matters in hand some way out. Big shout under 4-lb penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 66 · 5f3y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 66 par22/055OR 665 @ Wolverhampton 29/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 67 · 5f21y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 66 par16/065OR 665 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 65 par13/085OR 656 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 62 · 5f1y Goo 133 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 61 · 5f GS 134 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 61 par8/096OR 616 @ Pontefract 24/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 59 · 5f3y Gd 134 · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Catterick 30/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 59 · 5f Goo 155 · beat its mark30/09/2026 · OR 59 par30/096OR 59projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30Catterick61st1st0
2026-09-24Pontefract62nd2nd0
2026-09-08Leicester69th9th0
2026-08-25Musselburgh64th4th0
2026-08-13Beverley510th9th+1
2026-07-28Beverley54th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0528/078/0930/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength69%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/05/20262nd11/486%89%+0.03
29/05/20268th11/142%22%-0.20
16/06/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
28/07/20264th8/158%63%+0.05
13/08/202610th18/15%0%-0.05
25/08/20264th7/282%40%-0.42
08/09/20269th11/142%20%-0.22
24/09/20262nd11/893%86%-0.07
30/09/20261st13/891%100%+0.09