Showtime Mahomes
7yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 7 · OR 61
Pontefract · Constant Security Services Handicap · 5f 3y
#10
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Ripon | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Newcastle | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-02-10 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 06/01/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 10/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 24/02/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 22/08/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 26/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |