Simba's Pride
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 9 · OR 63
Pontefract · Constant Security Services Handicap · 5f 3y
#11
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 5 | 19th | 18th | +1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 17/09/2026 | 19th | 18/1 | 5% | 5% | 0.00 |