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Under The Radar

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 4 · OR 59

Pontefract · Constant Security Services Handicap · 5f 3y

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thirsk maiden winner as a 2-y-o who is on a losing run but proving consistent, going from the front when 2½ lengths second of 6 to Go Victor in handicap at Beverley (5f, good to firm, 15/8) 13 days ago. Well drawn to go forward again but highly likely to face competition for the lead here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength68%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 23/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 72 par23/054OR 724 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 69 · 5f Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 69 · 5f Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 69 par12/064OR 695 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 66 · 5f Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 63 · 5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 63 par16/075OR 636 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 63 · 5f GF 133 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 62 · 5f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 62 par12/085OR 626 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 132 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Beverley 22/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 60 · 5f Gd 135 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 60 par22/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Beverley62nd2nd0
2026-09-15Redcar66th6th0
2026-08-12Beverley55th4th+1
2026-07-20Ayr63rd3rd0
2026-07-16Thirsk53rd2nd+1
2026-06-25Newcastle59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0525/0612/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 4-14 · tight 48/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength32%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20265th22/10%43%+0.43
31/05/20266th22/10%55%+0.55
12/06/20266th22/10%58%+0.58
25/06/20269th6/168%27%-0.41
16/07/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
20/07/20263rd2/189%60%-0.29
12/08/20265th33/10%56%+0.56
15/09/20266th6/168%58%-0.10
22/09/20262nd15/890%80%-0.10