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13

Wrestling Revenue

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 13 · OR 53

Pontefract · Constant Security Services Handicap · 5f 3y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed a gamble from 4 lb higher in this race 12 months ago. More miss than hit this season but encouraging that he went with much more spark after 3 months off when fifth at Musselburgh (5f) 23 days ago. Well treated if building on that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 30/08/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 60 par30/085OR 606 @ Pontefract 06/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 57 · 5f3y Sft 127 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 57 par5 @ Redcar 17/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 57 · 5f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 57 par17/105OR 575 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 62 · 5f Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 61 · 5f3y GS 131 · below its mark07/04/2026 · OR 61 par7/046OR 615 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 59 · 5f Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 57 · 5f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 57 par28/055OR 576 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 55 · 5f8y Sft 131 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 54 · 5f1y Goo 135 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 54 par12/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 14th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh65th5th0
2026-06-11Nottingham66th6th0
2026-05-28Ripon55th4th+1
2026-05-08Ripon57th6th+1
2026-04-07Pontefract612th12th0
2026-01-31Newcastle510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0831/0128/0512/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 9-14 · tight 73/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/08/202511th50/10%0%0.00
06/10/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
17/10/20259th11/142%20%-0.22
31/01/202610th80/10%0%0.00
07/04/202612th15/261%8%-0.52
08/05/20267th28/10%14%+0.14
28/05/20265th33/10%43%+0.43
11/06/20266th11/486%0%-0.86
12/09/20265th11/271%60%-0.11