3
Sixteen Cigarettes
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 76
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 28/09/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 17/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 31/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 01/09/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |