Gevalia
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 50
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-10-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 02/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 22/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |