2
Nelida
6yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 2 · OR 78
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |