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4

Mackenzie's Novva

7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 78

Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼3
Strength79%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 27/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 84 · 1m70y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 84 par27/05C5OR 84C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 02/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 84 · 1m70y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 84 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 86 · 1m70y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 86 par16/06C5OR 86C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 91 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 91 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 90 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 90 par22/07C5OR 90C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 10/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 97 · 1m70y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 97 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 92 · 1m70y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 92 par31/08C5OR 92C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 89 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 84 · 1m70y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 84 par21/09C5OR 84projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Presque Isle Downs?5th2nd+3
2026-09-07Presque Isle Downs?6th4th+2
2026-08-31Presque Isle Downs?5th2nd+3
2026-08-10Presque Isle Downs?3rd-1th+3
2026-07-22Presque Isle Downs?5th2nd+3
2026-07-02Presque Isle Downs?2nd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/052/0731/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 37/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength38%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20264th16/116%40%+0.24
02/06/20264th25/10%50%+0.50
16/06/20262nd7/163%80%+0.17
02/07/20262nd7/163%75%+0.12
22/07/20265th11/271%33%-0.38
10/08/20263rd40/10%60%+0.60
31/08/20265th11/486%0%-0.86
07/09/20266th16/116%0%-0.16
21/09/20265th20/10%33%+0.33