2
Point Liam
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength68%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |