3
Tiz Big Money
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 83/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 23/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 06/10/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |