Cole's Valentine
5yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 61
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2024 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 18/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |