3
Hits Different
6yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 79
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 25/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 17/08/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |