8
Nan O'hara
4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 8 · OR 61
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/11/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 10/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 19/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |