4
Alan Bresil
6yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 97
Stratford · QuinnBet Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 6f 7y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Fontwell | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Huntingdon | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Fakenham | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Ascot | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Wincanton | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 26/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 05/03/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 13/04/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |