1
Juan Bermudez
7yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 109
Stratford · QuinnBet Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 6f 7y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Stratford | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Stratford | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Stratford | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Aintree | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Stratford | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Stratford | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 16/09/2025 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 7% | -0.09 |
| 06/10/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 05/09/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |