2
No More Bolero
7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 107
Stratford · QuinnBet Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 6f 7y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Fontwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Market Rasen | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Market Rasen | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Worcester | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bath | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 17/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |