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Arcturus Flame

4yo Gelding · 11-6

Stratford · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 70y

#2

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful Flat performer. Didn't have much to beat when easing to hurdling debut success at Plumpton (2m) last time, jumping much better than his sole rival on paper. Surely better to come given his profile/connections and rates a very credible danger to Square D'Alboni.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 03/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 75 · 1m2f219y Sta 137 · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 75 par3/125OR 754 @ Wolverhampton 30/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 77 · 1m1f104y Std 132 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 77 · 1m2f Goo 127 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 77 par18/044OR 774 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 77 · 1m6f Gd 132 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 76 · 1m4f5y Gd 134 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 76 par14/064OR 764 @ Epsom Downs 01/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 76 · 1m4f6y Goo 138 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Yarmouth 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 75 · 1m3f104y GF 135 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 75 par14/085OR 754 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m6f Sft 132 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Plumpton 20/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR - · 1m7f195y Goo 15620/094projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20Plumpton41st1st0
2026-08-29Goodwood45th5th0
2026-08-14Yarmouth52nd3rd−1
2026-07-01Epsom Downs45th5th0
2026-06-14Salisbury42nd2nd0
2026-05-01Goodwood43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/121/0514/0820/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/12/20253rd10/382%80%-0.02
30/03/20263rd85/4089%82%-0.07
18/04/20265th22/10%69%+0.69
01/05/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07
14/06/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09
01/07/20265th7/282%56%-0.26
14/08/20262nd6/594%67%-0.27
29/08/20265th85/4089%50%-0.39
20/09/20261st2/799%100%+0.02