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3

Drumstick

5yo Gelding · 11-0

Stratford · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 70y

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Given a considerate introduction on hurdling/stable debut at Newton Abbot this time last year. Since broke his duck with a fair performance on return at Windsor (not in same form either Flat start since) and likely a longer-term project back in this sphere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newbury 16/05/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 67 · 1m Goo 137 · below its mark16/05/2025 · OR 67 par16/055OR 675 @ Nottingham 01/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 66 · 1m75y Goo 129 · beat its mark01/06/2025 · OR 66 par6 @ Kempton 09/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 64 · 1m Sta 134 · beat its mark09/07/2025 · OR 64 par9/076OR 645 @ Newbury 24/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 65 · 1m2f Goo 136 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 65 par5 @ Kempton 19/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 64 · 1m2f219y Sta 138 · beat its mark19/08/2025 · OR 64 par19/085OR 644 @ Newton Abbot 29/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 2m167y Gd 1526 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 63 · 1m2f Goo 133 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 63 par4/056OR 634 @ Sandown 06/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 70 · 1m1f209y Goo 146 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Wolverhampton 21/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 69 · 1m142y Std 139 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 69 par21/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Wolverhampton57th8th−1
2026-08-06Sandown47th7th0
2026-05-04Windsor61st3rd−2
2025-09-29Newton Abbot48th8th0
2025-08-19Kempton57th8th−1
2025-07-24Newbury56th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0524/074/0521/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength15%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/202513th17/255%0%-0.55
01/06/20256th11/142%58%+0.16
09/07/20252nd5/287%89%+0.02
24/07/20256th11/142%0%-0.42
19/08/20257th9/153%40%-0.13
29/09/20258th50/10%36%+0.36
04/05/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
06/08/20267th10/147%0%-0.47
21/09/20267th14/126%33%+0.07