5
Red Metal
4yo Gelding · 10-13
Stratford · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Stratford | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Kempton | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2025-12-20 | Hereford | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 4-4 · tight 71/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -48.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 09/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |