Square D'alboni
4yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 118
Stratford · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Worcester | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-19 | Worcester | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Worcester | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stratford | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Catterick | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Newbury | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 13/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 25/10/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 14/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 30/01/2026 | 7th | 4/9 | 98% | 25% | -0.73 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 25/09/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |