3
Educator
7yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 102
Stratford · Thanks To Our Raceday Team Past And Present Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 2f 148y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength30%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Yarmouth | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Yarmouth | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 5-6 · tight 83/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 15/05/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 17/09/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |