1
Emerald Time
5yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 106
Stratford · Thanks To Our Raceday Team Past And Present Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 2f 148y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Worcester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Worcester | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Aintree | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Wetherby | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 10/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 24/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 27/03/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.59 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |