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Roarin' Success

6yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 104

Stratford · Thanks To Our Raceday Team Past And Present Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 2f 148y

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful Flat performer. Well backed/overcame mistakes when completing a course double over this trip in July. Jumped better when beaten 5¼ lengths off this mark at Bangor subsequently. Should give a good account in her bid to make it 3-3 here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Catterick 28/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f156y Gd 15428/1244 @ Newcastle 15/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 2m190y Goo 1554 @ Catterick 24/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 15424/0243 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 83 · 1m4f8y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Haydock 25/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 81 · 1m2f100y Goo 131 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 81 par25/044OR 815 @ Uttoxeter 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 100 · 1m7f168y Gd 163 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 100 par5 @ Stratford 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 97 · 2m70y Goo 165 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 97 par29/065OR 975 @ Stratford 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 101 · 2m2f148y GF 168 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 101 par4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 104 · 2m145y Gd 164 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 104 par8/094OR 104projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Bangor-on-Dee43rd3rd0
2026-07-19Stratford51st2nd−1
2026-06-29Stratford51st2nd−1
2026-05-16Uttoxeter55th6th−1
2026-04-25Haydock47th7th0
2026-04-10Thirsk34th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1210/0429/068/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/12/20256th25/10%17%+0.17
15/01/20262nd66/10%91%+0.91
24/02/20264th4/179%63%-0.16
10/04/20264th18/15%25%+0.20
25/04/20267th12/137%14%-0.23
16/05/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
29/06/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
19/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
08/09/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08