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Stellarmasterpiece

6yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 94

Stratford · Thanks To Our Raceday Team Past And Present Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 2f 148y

#1

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

96%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved again/travelled well to complete a course hat-trick in July before bringing up a cross-code 4-timer on the Flat at Catterick (1½m). Continued in top form when second to a subsequent winner at Sedgefield (2½m) last time. Excels under Sean Bowen and can maintain her unbeaten record here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 21/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 71 · 1m7f156y Sft 143 · beat its mark21/01/2026 · OR 71 par21/015OR 716 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 65 · 1m4f13y Goo 135 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Catterick 22/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 65 · 1m5f192y Goo 135 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 65 par22/046OR 656 @ Catterick 11/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m7f189y Gd 137 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Stratford 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 71 · 2m70y Goo 150 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 71 par30/055OR 715 @ Stratford 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 77 · 2m2f148y Goo 147 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Stratford 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 85 · 2m2f148y GF 157 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 85 par19/075OR 855 @ Catterick 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 63 · 1m4f13y Goo 149 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Sedgefield 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 93 · 2m3f188y Goo 161 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 93 par9/095OR 93projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Sedgefield52nd3rd−1
2026-08-17Catterick51st2nd−1
2026-07-19Stratford51st2nd−1
2026-06-30Stratford51st2nd−1
2026-05-30Stratford51st2nd−1
2026-05-11Catterick66th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0111/0519/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 83/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength99%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/01/20265th6/168%67%-0.02
08/04/20264th6/168%67%-0.02
22/04/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
11/05/20266th15/261%29%-0.32
30/05/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
30/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
19/07/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
17/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
09/09/20262nd1/195%83%-0.11