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9

Bahtiyar

8yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 72

Stratford · Jodie Standing's Point-To-Point Recruits Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 6f 125y

#9

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden who was held back by his jumping at Sedgefield 3 weeks ago. Tongue tie back on and opposable from out of the weights, even from this basement mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Warwick 04/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 75 · 3m1f100y Gd 143 · beat its mark04/11/2025 · OR 75 par4/115OR 754 @ Warwick 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 74 · 2m4f Goo 142 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Ffos Las 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 82 · 2m5f110y Goo 150 · below its mark05/05/2026 · OR 82 par5/055OR 825 @ Warwick 09/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 82 · 3m Gd 153 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Plumpton 26/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 80 · 2m3f166y Gd 143 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 80 par26/054OR 804 @ Warwick 03/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 80 · 2m4f Goo 142 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 80 par5 @ Stratford 12/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 79 · 2m3f98y GF 148 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 79 par12/075OR 795 @ Stratford 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 75 · 2m6f125y Goo 145 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Sedgefield 14/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 74 · 3m2f59y Goo 147 · below its mark14/09/2026 · OR 74 par14/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Sedgefield54th5th−1
2026-09-05Stratford53rd4th−1
2026-07-12Stratford56th7th−1
2026-06-03Warwick45th5th0
2026-05-26Plumpton42nd2nd0
2026-05-09Warwick54th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/119/0512/0714/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/11/20253rd10/147%67%+0.19
23/04/20262nd50/10%80%+0.80
05/05/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
09/05/20264th7/282%57%-0.24
26/05/20262nd5/174%67%-0.07
03/06/20265th5/174%0%-0.74
12/07/20266th22/10%17%+0.17
05/09/20263rd33/10%78%+0.78
14/09/20264th6/168%25%-0.43