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Melton Mossy

7yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 107

Stratford · Jodie Standing's Point-To-Point Recruits Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 6f 125y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Five-time hurdles winner who struck at the second time of asking over fences in 3-runner Wincanton handicap in March. Better than bare facts of Worcester run 2 months later but he's never been one for maximum faith as was never a factor at Newton Abbot down at 2m 4 weeks ago. Back up in distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hereford 12/02/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 106 · 2m3f147y Goo 154 · below its mark12/02/2025 · OR 106 par12/024OR 1065 @ Chepstow 20/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 105 · 2m7f131y Gd 168 · below its mark20/03/2025 · OR 105 par5 @ Ffos Las 16/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 104 · 2m4f Gd 167 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 104 par16/105OR 1044 @ Taunton 27/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 104 · 2m3f1y Goo 152 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 104 par3 @ Taunton 11/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 111 · 2m3f1y Goo 149 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 111 par11/123OR 1114 @ Chepstow 21/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 110 · 2m3f98y Sft 162 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 110 par4 @ Wincanton 23/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 107 · 1m7f149y Gd 159 · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 107 par23/034OR 1074 @ Worcester 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 110 · 2m4f Gd 158 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 110 par4 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 109 · 2m75y Gd 168 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 109 par7/094OR 109projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Newton Abbot44th4th0
2026-05-22Worcester45th5th0
2026-03-23Wincanton41st1st0
2026-02-21Chepstow46th6th0
2025-12-11Taunton37th6th+1
2025-11-27Taunton41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0227/1123/037/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength27%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/02/20258th11/271%22%-0.49
20/03/20255th15/261%56%-0.05
16/10/20252nd3/184%80%-0.04
27/11/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
11/12/20257th7/282%40%-0.42
21/02/20266th22/10%17%+0.17
23/03/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
22/05/20265th14/126%50%+0.24
07/09/20264th11/271%25%-0.46